HBR ：The Rise of Forensic Economics by Raymond Fisman

哈佛商业评论：司法经济学地位日益提升 【瑞蒙.菲斯曼】
【注：个人翻译，转帖请注明及（或）告知】

The Rise of Forensic Economics
by Raymond Fisman

In August 2008 the Swiss police raided a number of offices of Alstom, a French company that had paid bribes to secure infrastructure contracts worldwide. The Alstom scandal – and corruption at companies such as Siemens and Halliburton – were uncovered by vigilant auditors and smart law-enforcement officials. These aren’t the only people unearthing illicit transactions, however. Some economists have recently turned into detectives, pioneering the field of forensic economics.

2008 年八月时，瑞士警方曾突袭阿郎斯通的几家办事处，这家法国公司为了得到全球型的基建合同而行贿。这桩阿郎斯通的丑闻，还有西门子及哈利伯顿公司的贪污案，都是由一些机敏的审查人员和执法官员发现的。然而他们并不仅仅是侦查非法交易的官员。一些经济学家最近变身为侦探，成为司法经济学的先锋。

Forensic economists don’t investigate specific crimes or individual wrongdoing; they analyze the incentives underlying criminal activity and then use conventional tools to look for the footprints that wrongdoers’ actions have left in the data. Which companies were shipping arms to Angola in violation of a UN embargo? Economists looked at stock market reactions to news of a ceasefire in Angola to see which stocks suffered the most: Presumably the embargo violators had the most to lose from an end to the fi ghting. What goods were smuggled into China from Hong Kong in the late 1990s? When I compared records of Hong Kong’s exports with those of China’s imports, I found that high-tariff goods were most likely to “disappear” in transit. Other forensic economists have uncovered evidence of options back - dating, payola in the UN oil-for-food program, and vote trading among figure-skating judges at the Winter Olympics.

司法经济学并非是侦查特定或个体的犯罪行为；他们分析犯罪活动后是受怎么样的利益驱使，然后使用常规工具去寻找那些做错事的人在数据档案中留下的脚印。哪些公司违反了联合国禁运令，向安哥拉运送武器？经济学家们一直观察着证券市场对于安哥拉停火消息的反应，来判断哪些公司的股票受挫最为严重：按照推测那些违反了禁令的公司应当在战争结束时受损失最多。哪些货物在90年代后期从香港走私到了中国大陆？当我比较了香港出口额和中国大陆的进口额的记录后，我发现在运输中那些高价商品最可能“消失”。其他的司法经济学家也发现了期权倒签，联合国油换粮项目的贪污以及贿赂奥林匹克冬运会中花样滑冰裁判的证据。

Forensic economists could have uncovered such problems sooner if they had been able to access data that only governments possess. That’s why we should create a global forensic economics laboratory to coordinate the work of government authorities and researchers, so that together they can better fi ght corruption. Had I been able to work with China’s customs agencies, I could have found smuggling patterns today rather than having to look back at the 1990s. If forensic economists are to detect the sort of bribery Alstom engaged in, they will need better data on cross-border financial flows than are in the public domain. And if governments gave them access, they would have more useful and interesting problems to study, and their results would be more relevant to current policy. They still wouldn’t be able to dig up evidence of crimes by specifi c companies, but the patterns they uncovered would help focus enforcement efforts on the sectors or countries with the most suspicious activity.

如果司法经济学家们可以获得政府级别权限的档案资料，就有可能更早发现这些问题。因此我们应当创建一个司法经济学试验所来协调政府高官和研究人员的工作，从而更有效的打击贪污。如果我能够与中国海关部门进行合作，我应该能发现如今的走私模式而不是回头看90年代。如果司法经济学家要找出阿郎斯通是使用了何种行贿手法，他们会需要更好的跨国财务流数据，而不是整个公共领域。如果政府给予了权限，他们本可能研究更多有益有利的疑难问题，而且结果也会更符合现有政策。他们如今仍然不能挖掘特定企业的犯罪证据，但是他们揭露的犯罪模式能够帮助执法部门将效能聚焦在最有违法嫌疑的活动的国家或行业中。

Collaboration can be a two-way street. Economists could draw on the experience of in-the-trenches bureaucrats and police offi cers to fi nd promising leads. Rather than make do with off-the-shelf data, they could design research programs around governments’ anticorruption efforts, and if governments were willing to experiment with those efforts, economists could follow up with audits to examine their impact. Happily, collaboration between academe and government is well established, as is global cooperation to combat criminal activity: For nearly 100 years Interpol has coordinated efforts to fi ght transnational crime.

合作可以是一把双刃剑。经济学家可以吸收官员和警方的实战经验、找出可能的线索。与其勉强应付现成的数据，他们更能自行设计与政府反贪行动相关的研究项目，如果政府愿意对这些成果进行试验，经济学家们可以补充审核以便考察其影响。令人欣喜的是，学院与政府间的合作已良好建立，打击犯罪活动的国际合作亦如是：国际刑警组织协调和竭力打击国际间犯罪已经将近100年了。

Crunching numbers won’t generate the same excitement that other methods of fighting crime
do; we economists will never appear on the evening news busting down doors with guns blazing. But data could be a critical weapon in the anticorruption arsenal if governments gave forensic economists the opportunity to put them to good use. WEF HBR

咀嚼数字并不能产生与其他打击犯罪的方式相同的兴奋感；我们经济学家永远不会出现在那些破门而入、双方交火的夜间新闻上。但是数据可以是反贪政策中的一项有力武器，只要政府能够给司法经济学家们机会并善用他们。

Raymond Fisman is the Lambert Family Professor of Social Enterprise at Columbia Business School in New York. He is a coauthor, with Edward Miguel, of Economic Gangsters (Princeton, 2008).

瑞蒙.菲斯曼是纽约哥伦比亚商学院的社会企业学朗伯学派教授。他与艾德伍德.米盖尔共同出版了“经济匪徒”一书。【普林斯顿，2008】

原文：http://hbr.harvardbusiness.org/web/2009/hbr-list/rise-of-forensic-economics

哈佛商业评论 2009 二十大创见

链接到PDF ：
http://www.hbrtaiwan.com/event/200902_view/brief2009.pdf

1.保障消費者的消費信貸　Consumer Safety for Consumer Credit

2007年底開始，美國資產價值高速下滑，長期倚賴資產為標的物進行信貸消費的美國，因為資產價值減損，消費能力快速下滑。衍生性金融商品成為了大家撻伐的對象，習慣是難以改變的，所以反從制度面著手，若能夠建立一套完善的法律制度，把金融商品交易「正常化」、「法制化」，則可降低金融風暴發生的機率。

2.借錢找路人不找銀行　　Forget Citibank - Borrow from Bob

網際網路的興起，影響信貸模式改變，傳統的貨幣銀行體系，將金融機構(銀行等)視為「金融中介」(Financial Intermediate)，功能逐漸弱化，個人對個人的互動更加頻繁、便利；而且透過網路資訊蒐集的系統，也更容易幫助取得正確的評估資料，透過網路，P2P借貸(peer-to-peer lending)將會成為金融機構不可忽視的力量。

3.行銷勞動體驗　The IKEA Effect: When Labor Leads to Love

「IKEA效應」指出，勞動會增加人們對工作成果的感情。但其中的關鍵在於，目標設立需要是一個能夠達到水準，只有當勞動過後有收穫之時，成果的價值才會被高估。

4.大賺移民財　Western Union World

移民可能不會給本國帶來大的消費引響，但是卻在他們自己的母國(家鄉)有強大的影響力。如何能夠取得移民族群的消費力，成為企業國際化、進入他方市場重要的思考。企業應該要想辦法能夠結合移民家鄉當地的文化特色，創造品牌忠誠度；創造個人價值，使他們成為家鄉羨慕的潮流引導者；最後，多方面的探討了解。

5.投資非洲的時機到了　Now's the Time to Invest in Africa

中國投資非洲，是2007至2008年最火的話題，不過近年來非洲已經從一個高度不穩定的地方，轉型成為了適合投資(因為尚未開發)的區域，他們擁有目前新興國家以往的優勢，而且還有更多未開發的資源、廣大的消費人口，新的總體經濟力量可能將在不景氣之中，帶來深遠的影響。

6.美國人才悄悄出走　A Looming American Diaspora

7.國家重掌經濟大權　State Capitalism Makes a Comeback

2008年開始，隨著私人企業一家家的瓦解，美國大型企業看似崩潰的情況之下，國家被迫干預市場，向來崇尚資本主義、自由經濟的美國企業瓦解，亞洲、中東國家開始興起，亞洲、中東大型企業多由政府所掌控，在美國國有企業情況明顯之下，全世界的政府似乎已經重新回到了經濟舵手的角色。

8.腦力該外包嗎？　Should You Outsource Your Brain?

9.我是親切不是傻　Just Because I'm Nice, Don't Assume I'm Dumb

10.擅用社會壓力　 Harnessing Social Pressure

11.跟蜜蜂學習團體決策　 How Social Networks Network Best

12.量出人際影響的距離　 The Dynamics of Personal Influence

13.經濟學家跨行當偵探　 The Rise of Economic Forensics

經濟學家一直都是很弱勢的行業，因為不像律師、醫師、會計師，有專屬於他們的證照可考取，但是近年來隨著企業治理、全球化的腳步，經濟問題不單單僅靠一門專業科目解決，需要更廣的知識來處理，尤其是經濟制度、犯罪等等，這時候廣而專精的經濟學家反而成為首選。

14.企業記憶數位資料庫　 Institutional Memory Goes Digital

15.跟生物學創新　 The Business of Biomimicry

16.誰說全球沒暖化！　 Beware Global Cooling

17.住怪房子長命百歲　 Stumbling to a Longer Life

18.玩出事業大能力　 Launching a Better Brain

19.網路搜尋不再大海撈針　 What You Need to Know about the Semantic Web

20.架設地球中樞神經系統　 A Central Nervous System for the Earth

原文出自http://eyewithouts.blogspot.com/2009/03/hbr-breakthrough-ideas-for-2009.html